'sounds an alarm' for policymakers. This type of intelligence conveys a sense of urgency and implies a possible need to respond with policy action. Warning intelligence includes the identification or forecasting of events, such as coups, third-party wars, or refugee situations, that would warrant the engagement of U.S. military forces or that would have a sudden and detrimental effect on U.S. foreign policy concerns. Warning analysis involves the exploration of alternative futures and low-probability/high-impact scenarios.
[is] an intelligence product upon which to base a notification of impending activities on the part of foreign powers, including hostilities, which may adversely affect military forces or security interests.