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Lance Hoffman, Cryptography: Policy and Trends (Jan. 30 1994) (full-text).
This report analyzes trends in encryption technology, markets, export controls, and legislation. It identifies five trends which will have a strong influence on cryptography policy in the United States:
- The continued expansion of the Internet and the progressive miniaturization of cryptographic hardware combined with the increasing availability and use of strong cryptographic software means that the strongest encryption technologies will continue to become more easily obtainable everywhere in the years ahead.
- Additional growth in networked and wireless communication will fuel a strong demand for encryption hardware and software both domestically and abroad, causing the U.S. high-technology industry to be increasingly interested in selling encryption products overseas and in modifying current export restrictions.
- Due to the responsibilities and bureaucratic dispositions of key Executive Branch agencies, products using strong encryption algorithms such as DES will continue to face at least some export restrictions, despite the widespread availability of strong encryption products overseas.
- The American public is likely to become increasingly concerned about its privacy and about cryptographic policy as a result of the increased amount of personal information available online and the growing number of wireless and networked communications. The development and increasingly widespread use of the National Information Infrastructure will heighten these concerns.
- Encryption policy is becoming an important public policy issue that will engage the attention of all branches of government. Congress will become increasingly visible in this debate due to its power of agency oversight and its role in passing laws accommodating the United States' rapid rate of technological change. Agencies will remain very important since they have the implementing and, often, the planning responsibilities. Since individuals and industry have more direct influence over Congress than over most other branches of government, Congress may place somewhat more emphasis on personal freedom than many other government actors.